Open Access Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington
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Estimation and Probabilistic Linkage in Sample Surveys of Anonymous Organisations

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thesis
posted on 2021-11-22, 21:57 authored by Jury, Nicholas

Drug use takes on many forms, normally this will be just the occasional alcoholic drink, certain individuals drug use develops into habitual use, or more extreme drugs, and then into full addiction. Some of these addicted individuals realise the harmful nature of their addition and join the anonymous support group, Narcotics Anonymous.  This study focus' on the creation of population size estimates, and an estimate of the size of the persistent population between two survey years. These estimates are created from the 2004 and 2008 surveys run by the Narcotics Anonymous Fellowship, as this is an anonymous organisation with no register of the membership database maintained.  Population size estimation for an anonymous organisation is established using simulation methods. The bootstrap estimation was used to estimate characteristics about the two populations. Probabilistic matching was used to identify individuals who were in both the 2004, and 2008 surveys. Once identi ed, a logistic regression model was used to establish what impacts an individual to remain in the programme.  Factors that impacted an individual being persistent in the population included the individual education, employment status, and if they had worked through all the 12 steps of Narcotics Anonymous.

History

Copyright Date

2017-01-01

Date of Award

2017-01-01

Publisher

Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington

Rights License

Author Retains Copyright

Degree Discipline

Statistics and Operations Research

Degree Grantor

Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington

Degree Level

Masters

Degree Name

Master of Science

ANZSRC Type Of Activity code

970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences

Victoria University of Wellington Item Type

Awarded Research Masters Thesis

Language

en_NZ

Victoria University of Wellington School

School of Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research

Advisors

Arnold, Richard