Abstract:
A confluence of factors including population growth, climate change,
resource constraints and legacy effects poses significant challenges to the
sustainability of cities worldwide. With the deep complexity inherent in
socio-ecological systems, 'solutions' sometimes shift the problem in
space or time or drive the system in the opposite direction than intended.
A case study into climate change adaptation and community resilience in
the context of urban water management was undertaken in Wellington,
New Zealand, using a 'post normal' science approach. Climate change
and water demand scenarios for 2040 and 2090 were analysed using
Greater Wellington Water’s 'sustainable yield' model and downscaled
general circulation climate model data. Semi-structured interviews and a
systems modelling workshop were conducted in order to gain an
understanding of the local context for adaptation, resilience and response
option selection. With a 20% reduction of aggregate per capita demand
and greater storage capacity, Wellington has sufficient water from
current sources to smooth increased flow variability due to climate
change and to meet increased demand from the projected increase in
population. Adaptation pathways and the potential for 'maladaptation' is
explored and an integrated framework for optimising urban water
resilience developed.
