Infestations as a Natural Disaster: The Economic Impacts of the Fonterra Whey Protein Concentrate Contamination Incident
This paper presents the results from an investigation into the economic implications for New Zealand of the 2013 Whey Protein Concentrate contamination incident (popularly known as the Fonterra Botulism scare). It assesses the impact of this incident to dairy exports using synthetic control methods. A synthetic counterfactual scenario where the incident did not occur is developed using weighted averages of the dairy exports of countries unaffected by the scare. The research finds that there was an initial negative shock to the exports of products that were thought to have been contaminated, but that there were no significant sustained impacts on other dairy products. The affected products make up only a small proportion of New Zealand dairy exports, with the vast majority of dairy exports being unaffected products. Infant formula exports appear to have recovered somewhat in the long run, however whey product exports remain lower than they otherwise would have been.