Observations and Modelling of Precipitation in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Abstract

Precipitation in the central Southern Alps affects glaciation, river flows and key economic activities, yet there is still uncertainty about its spatial distribution and primary influences. Long-term and future patterns of New Zealand precipitation can be estimated by the HadRM3P regional climate model (RCM) - developed by the United Kingdom Met Office - but orographic rainfall in the steep and rugged topography of the Southern Alps is difficult to simulate accurately at the 30-km resolution of the RCM. To quantify empirical relationships, observations of surface rainfall were gathered from rain gauges covering a broad region of the South Island. In four transects of the Hokitika, Franz Josef and Haast regions, the mean annual precipitation maxima of objectively interpolated profiles are consistently located 7-11 km southeast of the New Zealand Alpine Fault. The magnitude and shape of the rainfall profile across the Southern Alps are strongly influenced by the 850-hPa wind direction to the north of the mountain range, as determined by comparing rain-gauge observations to wind vectors from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. The observed profile of orographically enhanced rainfall was incorporated into a trivariate spline in order to interpolate precipitation simulated by the RCM. This downscaling method significantly improved the RCM's estimates of mean annual rainfall at stations in the Southern Alps region from 1971 to 2000, and RCM projections of future rainfall in mountainous regions may be similarly refined via this technique. The improved understanding of the observed rainfall distribution in the Southern Alps, as gained from this analysis, has a range of other hydrological applications and is already being used in 'downstream' modelling of glaciers.